GW7 Preview: Ipswich at the Etihad, Palace at the Amex and a Captain Call Where the Model Disagrees

By Geomi George · Published 16 October 2026

Another Saturday-morning deadline: Everton v Chelsea kicks off at 12:30 UK time, so the squad locks at 11:00 on Saturday 17 October. This round has the two most generous home fixtures of the season so far on the same weekend, a Liverpool attack that is mostly in the treatment room, and a captaincy call where our model and the crowd disagree. Check the countdown on the dashboard, then read on.

What GW6 left behind

The GW6 review has the detail. The short version: City won 3-0 at Anfield, Chelsea put five past Bournemouth with João Pedro scoring twice on his return, and Brighton's De Cuyper and Groß finished the round as the game's joint top scorers on 53. The market has reacted the way you would expect. De Cuyper, Groß and Cherki have each been bought by more than half a million managers this week, João Pedro by nearly that many, and all of them have risen in price. Szoboszlai and Bruno Fernandes have each been sold by more than 400,000, Isak by nearly as many, and Isak and Gakpo have fallen.

The fixtures that matter

• Man City v Ipswich (Sat 3pm) — Ipswich travel on the round's hardest away rating, having conceded 12 in six without a clean sheet, to a City side that has scored 16 and conceded 5. Haaland, Cherki and Semenyo are the obvious targets; Gvardiol and Guéhi the clean-sheet plays.
• Brighton v Palace (Sun 2pm) — Brighton have scored 18, the most in the league, and kept four clean sheets. Palace have conceded 12. This is the fixture behind our captain pick below, and De Cuyper, Vuskovic and Verbruggen all profit if the clean sheet comes.
• Everton v Chelsea (Sat 12:30) — the opener, and the awkward one. Chelsea have scored 15 but conceded 13 without a clean sheet; Everton have conceded 5 and kept three. That makes João Pedro, Rogers and Palmer a harder sell than their form suggests, and Everton's attackers, Dewsbury-Hall and Barry, a quiet route into a leaky defence.
• Brentford v Liverpool (Sat 3pm) — Isak, Gakpo and Szoboszlai are all listed at 25%. Treat all three as out until Friday's press conference says otherwise, and do not start anyone whose team news lands after Saturday 11:00.
• Fulham v Hull and Spurs v Coventry (Mon) — both rated difficulty-2 for the home side, both worth less than the rating. Fulham have scored six all season against a Hull defence that has conceded six; Spurs have scored three goals in six games. The Coventry defenders, Dasilva and Thomas, are the live bargains in that game, not the Spurs attack.
• Leeds v Man United (Sun) — Bruno Fernandes owners, already down to a third of the game, face Leeds' five-goals-conceded defence. Cunha, on 10.0 form and owned by one manager in fifteen, is the United player with the momentum.

The full grid, with the runs out to GW10, is on the fixtures page.

Captaincy corner

For the first time this season our model does not have Haaland on top. It projects Groß at 10.2 points against Haaland's 8.4, and it is not hard to see why: Brighton's attack is the most productive in the league, Groß takes the penalties, free kicks and corners, and his form figure is 10.0 against Haaland's 6.0. But the gap is under two points, and we wrote after GW4 that when two options are that close, the higher-owned one is the better bet, because a blank hurts far less when three managers in four blank with you. Haaland is owned by 76% of the game; Groß by 41%.

• Haaland (MCI, home v IPS) — our call. Six goals, the highest expected goal involvement in the game, and the weakest defence on the grid in front of him. The safe choice and still a very good one.
• Groß (BHA, home v CRY) — the model's pick and the differential armband with real backing. If you are chasing in your mini-league and need to make ground on Haaland owners, this is the week to do it.
• Cherki (MCI, home v IPS) — 9.0 form and projected 7.7, but third in the same fixture as Haaland. A good differential captain only for anyone who does not own Haaland.
• João Pedro (CHE, away at EVE) — two goals last week, but Everton's defence is among the tightest in the league and the model has him at 6.8. Not this week.

Whatever you choose, the team analyzer ranks the captain options in your own squad by projected points.

Differentials worth a look

Cunha (MUN, £7.9m, 6.5% owned) has scored or assisted in each of the last two rounds and goes to Leeds on 10.0 form, level with Groß and Semenyo. Dewsbury-Hall (EVE, £6.6m, 5.9%) has 33 points and faces a Chelsea defence yet to keep a clean sheet, whatever the difficulty colour says. Brobbey (SUN, £5.7m, 5.2%) has come through his hamstring scare, is back in the squad, and visits a Bournemouth side that has conceded 13 without a clean sheet. For defenders, Vuskovic (BHA, £5.1m, 4.8%) is the cheap way into Brighton's four clean sheets, and Dasilva (COV, £4.0m, 1.1%) has 25 points on 10.0 form. The differentials guide explains how much to trust six-game samples.

Before the deadline checklist

• Saturday 11:00 UK deadline. Everton v Chelsea is the early game. Set a reminder.
• Prices tonight: De Cuyper, Groß, Cherki, Belloumi, Henderson and Doku are queued to rise; Isak, Gakpo, Szoboszlai, Tzolis and Scott to fall. The predictor updates through the evening — if you are buying a Brighton or City player, do it before the rise.
• Flags to check: Schade (shoulder, 75%) and Shaw (75%) are the two worth waiting on. The Liverpool three at 25% should be benched or sold, not gambled on.
• Bruno owners: selling is defensible after four blanks, but his expected goal involvement is still third among midfielders, and Bournemouth at home follows Leeds. One more week is not unreasonable.
• One week ahead: GW8 brings Chelsea v Spurs, Liverpool v Brighton and Arsenal v Everton. Hull host Brentford then Ipswich, which keeps Tzolakis and Belloumi in play.

The full optimized squad — 3-5-2, Groß captain, De Cuyper vice, three Brighton players in — is on the Best XI page, and Saturday's opener will be live in the Match Centre. Good luck for GW7.