💸 Price Change Predictor
Heuristic predictions for tonight's ~02:30 UK price changes. Accuracy: 75–85%.
How it works: FPL changes prices when a player's net transfers (transfers_in − transfers_out) crosses a hidden threshold that scales with ownership. We estimate this threshold using the community-known formula and compare against current data. Not 100% accurate — chip activations, lock periods, and FPL's algorithm tweaks affect outcomes.
🔍 Check a player — will their price move tonight?
Predicted Rises
18
Predicted Falls
11
Watch List
14
Snapshots
295567
📈 Predicted to RISE tonight
| Player | Net | Threshold | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
|
MID
Neto
CHE · £6.5 · 2.3%
|
+84,309 | 20,000 | 95% |
|
MID
Iwobi
FUL · £5.4 · 1%
|
+22,487 | 10,000 | 95% |
|
MID
Henderson
CHE · £4.9 · 1.1%
|
+21,476 | 10,000 | 95% |
|
FWD
Evanilson
BOU · £6.1 · 4.3%
|
+40,479 | 20,000 | 95% |
|
MID
Manzambi
AVL · £6.0 · 2.7%
|
+39,546 | 20,000 | 60% |
|
MID
Lewis-Potter
BRE · £5.5 · 1.7%
|
+19,339 | 10,000 | 60% |
|
MID
Ayari
BHA · £5.4 · 0.5%
|
+8,833 | 5,000 | 60% |
|
MID
Barcola
LIV · £8.0 · 3.1%
|
+34,125 | 20,000 | 60% |
|
MID
Tavernier
BOU · £6.2 · 9%
|
+58,635 | 40,000 | 60% |
|
FWD
Kostoulas
BHA · £5.7 · 9.7%
|
+57,773 | 40,000 | 60% |
|
DEF
Dasilva
COV · £4.0 · 1.5%
|
+13,598 | 10,000 | 60% |
|
MID
Munoz
LIV · £6.5 · 1%
|
+13,427 | 10,000 | 60% |
|
DEF
Bogle
LEE · £4.7 · 10%
|
+50,108 | 40,000 | 60% |
|
DEF
Boscagli
BHA · £4.5 · 0.4%
|
+6,189 | 5,000 | 60% |
|
DEF
Vuskovic
BHA · £5.1 · 5.5%
|
+47,878 | 40,000 | 60% |
|
FWD
Isak
LIV · £9.0 · 12.9%
|
+83,238 | 70,000 | 60% |
|
GKP
Penders
CHE · £4.4 · 0.1%
|
+5,654 | 5,000 | 60% |
|
MID
Gomez
BHA · £5.0 · 3.8%
|
+22,261 | 20,000 | 60% |
📉 Predicted to FALL tonight
| Player | Net | Threshold | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
|
MID
Szoboszlai
LIV · £6.8 · 19.6%
|
-234,932 | 70,000 | 95% |
|
MID
Semenyo
MCI · £8.3 · 12.9%
|
-181,247 | 70,000 | 95% |
|
MID
Tzolis
ARS · £6.2 · 4.8%
|
-42,178 | 20,000 | 95% |
|
GKP
Martinez
CHE · £5.0 · 4.3%
|
-37,140 | 20,000 | 60% |
|
MID
B.Fernandes
MUN · £11.8 · 29.5%
|
-161,497 | 100,000 | 60% |
|
DEF
James
CHE · £5.3 · 4.1%
|
-30,307 | 20,000 | 60% |
|
MID
Scott
BOU · £6.0 · 2.8%
|
-29,973 | 20,000 | 60% |
|
MID
Janelt
BRE · £5.0 · 2.3%
|
-28,354 | 20,000 | 60% |
|
MID
Sávio
TOT · £6.5 · 0.9%
|
-12,195 | 10,000 | 60% |
|
DEF
Pedro Porro
TOT · £5.3 · 4.9%
|
-23,867 | 20,000 | 60% |
|
FWD
Igor Jesus
NFO · £5.7 · 1.5%
|
-11,521 | 10,000 | 60% |
⚠️ Watch list — close to threshold (either direction)
| Player | Net | Threshold | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
|
MID
Rudoni
COV · £4.9
|
4,886 | 5,000 | 98% toward rise |
|
FWD
Isidor
SUN · £5.5
|
-9,327 | 10,000 | 93% toward fall |
|
DEF
Frimpong
LIV · £5.2
|
-8,958 | 10,000 | 90% toward fall |
|
DEF
Ballard
SUN · £4.8
|
-8,585 | 10,000 | 86% toward fall |
|
DEF
Mendy
HUL · £4.1
|
-33,794 | 40,000 | 84% toward fall |
|
MID
Foden
MCI · £6.8
|
8,200 | 10,000 | 82% toward rise |
|
DEF
Jacquet
LIV · £5.0
|
16,305 | 20,000 | 82% toward rise |
|
MID
Elanga
NEW · £6.0
|
-15,703 | 20,000 | 79% toward fall |
|
FWD
Barry
EVE · £5.7
|
-30,656 | 40,000 | 77% toward fall |
|
MID
Mbeumo
MUN · £7.8
|
76,507 | 100,000 | 77% toward rise |
|
MID
Mainoo
MUN · £5.5
|
-7,613 | 10,000 | 76% toward fall |
|
FWD
McBurnie
HUL · £5.5
|
-7,327 | 10,000 | 73% toward fall |
|
DEF
Muharemović
LEE · £5.0
|
14,452 | 20,000 | 72% toward rise |
|
DEF
Ajer
BRE · £4.5
|
14,029 | 20,000 | 70% toward rise |
Predictions are based solely on net transfer counts vs ownership thresholds. They don't account for "lock periods" (24h after deadlines), chip floods, or recent price changes (a player rarely moves two days running). Treat as directional guidance, not guaranteed.
