xG Regression Radar
Spot players over/underperforming their expected goals. Past returns ≠ future returns. New to xG? Read the guide →
How to read this:
A player with more goals than their xG got lucky / clinical — they may regress downward. Fewer goals than xG = unlucky, due a positive bounce. The deltas combine goals+assists vs xG+xA.
📉 Overperformers
| Player | Pos | Goals / xG | Asst / xA | Over by |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Groß
BHA · £6.2
|
MID | 3 / 2.2 | 6 / 1.2 | +5.68 |
|
Kostoulas
BHA · £5.7
|
FWD | 3 / 1.8 | 4 / 0.1 | +5.05 |
|
João Pedro
CHE · £7.9
|
FWD | 5 / 3.1 | 3 / 0.3 | +4.64 |
|
Gvardiol
MCI · £5.8
|
DEF | 1 / 0.3 | 4 / 0.9 | +3.80 |
|
Palmer
CHE · £9.7
|
MID | 2 / 1.4 | 4 / 0.9 | +3.64 |
|
Belloumi
HUL · £5.2
|
MID | 3 / 1.0 | 2 / 0.6 | +3.43 |
|
Kamada
CRY · £5.0
|
MID | 1 / 0.8 | 3 / 0.4 | +2.76 |
|
Schade
BRE · £6.2
|
MID | 3 / 1.9 | 2 / 0.3 | +2.73 |
|
Rice
ARS · £7.3
|
MID | 0 / 0.3 | 4 / 1.2 | +2.56 |
|
Evanilson
BOU · £6.1
|
FWD | 2 / 2.6 | 4 / 1.0 | +2.44 |
|
De Cuyper
BHA · £5.3
|
DEF | 2 / 1.8 | 3 / 0.8 | +2.40 |
|
Cunha
MUN · £7.9
|
MID | 1 / 0.8 | 3 / 0.9 | +2.23 |
|
Gomez
BHA · £5.0
|
MID | 1 / 1.0 | 3 / 0.8 | +2.13 |
|
Neto
CHE · £6.5
|
MID | 3 / 1.2 | 1 / 0.9 | +1.91 |
|
Barnes
NEW · £6.1
|
MID | 1 / 1.2 | 3 / 0.9 | +1.89 |
|
Davis
IPS · £4.0
|
DEF | 2 / 1.6 | 2 / 0.6 | +1.78 |
|
Tarkowski
EVE · £6.2
|
DEF | 1 / 0.2 | 1 / 0.1 | +1.72 |
|
Ayari
BHA · £5.4
|
MID | 2 / 1.1 | 1 / 0.2 | +1.66 |
|
Rogers
CHE · £8.0
|
MID | 4 / 2.1 | 1 / 1.4 | +1.57 |
|
Muharemović
LEE · £5.0
|
DEF | 0 / 0.6 | 2 / 0.2 | +1.24 |
|
Ndiaye
MCI · £5.8
|
MID | 0 / 1.3 | 3 / 0.7 | +1.08 |
|
Wirtz
LIV · £7.2
|
MID | 0 / 1.2 | 3 / 0.8 | +1.05 |
|
McGinn
AVL · £5.4
|
MID | 1 / 1.6 | 2 / 0.3 | +1.03 |
|
Isak
LIV · £9.0
|
FWD | 5 / 3.9 | 0 / 0.1 | +1.03 |
|
Mitchell
CRY · £4.5
|
DEF | 2 / 0.8 | 0 / 0.3 | +0.95 |
📈 Underperformers
| Player | Pos | Goals / xG | Asst / xA | Under by |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Gonzalo
FUL · £6.1
|
FWD | 1 / 3.5 | 0 / 0.7 | -3.19 |
|
Bobb
FUL · £5.5
|
MID | 0 / 1.3 | 0 / 1.3 | -2.62 |
|
Rayan
BOU · £6.3
|
MID | 0 / 1.5 | 0 / 0.6 | -2.12 |
|
Iwobi
FUL · £5.4
|
MID | 1 / 0.7 | 0 / 2.3 | -2.01 |
|
Barry
EVE · £5.7
|
FWD | 3 / 4.7 | 0 / 0.2 | -1.86 |
|
Saka
ARS · £9.6
|
MID | 3 / 3.6 | 0 / 1.2 | -1.83 |
|
E.Le Fée
SUN · £5.7
|
MID | 1 / 2.1 | 1 / 1.6 | -1.69 |
|
Silva
BOU · £5.0
|
DEF | 0 / 1.3 | 0 / 0.4 | -1.65 |
|
McAtee
NFO · £5.5
|
MID | 0 / 0.5 | 0 / 1.1 | -1.62 |
|
Ødegaard
ARS · £6.8
|
MID | 2 / 1.9 | 0 / 1.6 | -1.50 |
|
Mac Allister
LIV · £5.4
|
MID | 0 / 0.6 | 0 / 0.9 | -1.43 |
|
Rúben
MCI · £5.5
|
DEF | 0 / 0.5 | 0 / 0.8 | -1.35 |
|
Thiago
BRE · £7.8
|
FWD | 1 / 3.7 | 2 / 0.5 | -1.17 |
|
Gabriel
ARS · £7.9
|
DEF | 0 / 0.9 | 0 / 0.2 | -1.16 |
|
Mukiele
SUN · £5.4
|
DEF | 0 / 0.8 | 0 / 0.3 | -1.14 |
|
Wissa
NEW · £6.1
|
FWD | 1 / 3.0 | 1 / 0.1 | -1.11 |
|
Ndoye
NFO · £5.5
|
MID | 2 / 2.1 | 0 / 1.0 | -1.04 |
|
Rudoni
COV · £4.9
|
MID | 2 / 1.8 | 0 / 1.2 | -1.01 |
|
Smith
BOU · £4.5
|
DEF | 0 / 0.6 | 0 / 0.4 | -0.98 |
|
Enciso
IPS · £5.5
|
MID | 0 / 1.3 | 2 / 1.6 | -0.95 |
|
Hill
BOU · £5.5
|
DEF | 0 / 0.0 | 0 / 0.9 | -0.95 |
|
Thomas
COV · £4.0
|
DEF | 0 / 0.6 | 0 / 0.4 | -0.93 |
|
Stach
LEE · £6.0
|
MID | 1 / 1.4 | 0 / 0.5 | -0.89 |
|
Elvedi
LEE · £4.5
|
DEF | 0 / 0.2 | 0 / 0.6 | -0.84 |
|
Truffert
BOU · £5.4
|
DEF | 0 / 0.1 | 0 / 0.7 | -0.81 |
Caveat: xG models don't capture everything. Elite finishers (Haaland, M. Salah at peak) consistently outperform xG due to shot quality. Treat these lists as a starting point, not a strict rule.
