xG Regression Radar
Spot players over/underperforming their expected goals. Past returns ≠ future returns.
How to read this:
A player with more goals than their xG got lucky / clinical — they may regress downward. Fewer goals than xG = unlucky, due a positive bounce. The deltas combine goals+assists vs xG+xA.
📉 Overperformers
| Player | Pos | Goals / xG | Asst / xA | Over by |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
B.Fernandes
MUN · £10.4
|
MID | 9 / 10.8 | 24 / 12.3 | +9.93 |
|
Bowen
WHU · £7.8
|
FWD | 9 / 7.2 | 13 / 5.2 | +9.57 |
|
Semenyo
MCI · £8.0
|
MID | 17 / 11.1 | 6 / 3.1 | +8.78 |
|
Wilson
FUL · £5.8
|
MID | 10 / 5.9 | 9 / 4.8 | +8.35 |
|
João Pedro
CHE · £7.4
|
FWD | 15 / 14.9 | 9 / 2.0 | +7.13 |
|
Rogers
AVL · £7.3
|
MID | 10 / 6.8 | 8 / 4.3 | +6.84 |
|
Haaland
MCI · £14.7
|
FWD | 27 / 25.5 | 8 / 2.7 | +6.83 |
|
Matheus N.
MCI · £5.3
|
DEF | 1 / 0.3 | 8 / 2.2 | +6.43 |
|
Gravenberch
LIV · £5.4
|
MID | 5 / 1.9 | 5 / 2.3 | +5.85 |
|
Bruno G.
NEW · £6.9
|
MID | 9 / 5.6 | 7 / 5.0 | +5.45 |
|
Dewsbury-Hall
EVE · £5.3
|
MID | 8 / 4.4 | 7 / 5.3 | +5.31 |
|
Gibbs-White
NFO · £7.6
|
MID | 15 / 10.8 | 4 / 2.9 | +5.28 |
|
Richarlison
TOT · £6.5
|
FWD | 11 / 8.6 | 4 / 1.5 | +4.90 |
|
J.Palhinha
TOT · £5.5
|
MID | 5 / 2.7 | 3 / 0.7 | +4.63 |
|
Casemiro
MUN · £5.8
|
MID | 9 / 5.4 | 4 / 3.2 | +4.39 |
|
Doku
MCI · £6.5
|
MID | 5 / 2.9 | 8 / 5.9 | +4.27 |
|
Igor Jesus
NFO · £5.9
|
FWD | 6 / 6.5 | 6 / 1.3 | +4.26 |
|
Anthony
BUR · £5.0
|
MID | 8 / 5.1 | 4 / 2.9 | +4.04 |
|
Diarra
SUN · £5.3
|
MID | 2 / 3.3 | 6 / 0.9 | +3.88 |
|
Woltemade
NEW · £6.7
|
FWD | 8 / 6.6 | 4 / 1.5 | +3.88 |
|
Aaronson
LEE · £5.4
|
MID | 4 / 4.5 | 8 / 3.6 | +3.87 |
|
Cherki
MCI · £6.5
|
MID | 4 / 4.3 | 13 / 8.9 | +3.85 |
|
Dorgu
MUN · £4.1
|
DEF | 4 / 2.4 | 4 / 1.8 | +3.77 |
|
James
CHE · £5.6
|
DEF | 2 / 1.0 | 6 / 3.2 | +3.76 |
|
Cunha
MUN · £8.1
|
MID | 10 / 6.9 | 4 / 3.4 | +3.74 |
📈 Underperformers
| Player | Pos | Goals / xG | Asst / xA | Under by |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Yeremy
CRY · £5.8
|
MID | 2 / 4.5 | 2 / 6.1 | -6.65 |
|
Brooks
BOU · £5.0
|
MID | 1 / 5.8 | 3 / 3.4 | -5.21 |
|
Mateta
CRY · £7.6
|
FWD | 12 / 14.4 | 0 / 1.3 | -3.74 |
|
Enzo
CHE · £6.5
|
MID | 10 / 11.3 | 5 / 7.3 | -3.52 |
|
Jensen
BRE · £4.9
|
MID | 3 / 2.2 | 2 / 6.1 | -3.27 |
|
Amad
MUN · £6.2
|
MID | 2 / 5.5 | 5 / 4.7 | -3.20 |
|
Mosquera
WOL · £4.3
|
DEF | 0 / 2.5 | 0 / 0.6 | -3.13 |
|
Mbeumo
MUN · £8.3
|
MID | 11 / 12.0 | 3 / 5.0 | -2.97 |
|
Wirtz
LIV · £8.3
|
MID | 5 / 6.8 | 4 / 5.1 | -2.97 |
|
Kamada
CRY · £5.0
|
MID | 0 / 1.6 | 2 / 3.2 | -2.88 |
|
Struijk
LEE · £4.2
|
DEF | 0 / 3.1 | 1 / 0.8 | -2.82 |
|
Spence
TOT · £4.1
|
DEF | 0 / 0.9 | 0 / 1.8 | -2.67 |
|
Tavernier
BOU · £5.3
|
MID | 7 / 9.1 | 4 / 4.6 | -2.66 |
|
Maatsen
AVL · £4.2
|
DEF | 0 / 1.3 | 1 / 2.4 | -2.65 |
|
Elanga
NEW · £6.5
|
MID | 0 / 1.7 | 1 / 1.7 | -2.39 |
|
F.Kadıoğlu
BHA · £4.5
|
DEF | 1 / 2.1 | 2 / 3.3 | -2.37 |
|
Gordon
NEW · £7.2
|
MID | 6 / 8.8 | 4 / 3.4 | -2.15 |
|
Garnacho
CHE · £6.4
|
MID | 1 / 3.4 | 4 / 3.7 | -2.12 |
|
Ndiaye
EVE · £6.3
|
MID | 6 / 6.7 | 3 / 4.4 | -2.09 |
|
Lucas Pires
BUR · £3.8
|
DEF | 0 / 0.6 | 0 / 1.5 | -2.06 |
|
Hughes
CRY · £4.7
|
MID | 0 / 1.1 | 1 / 1.9 | -2.05 |
|
Wharton
CRY · £5.0
|
MID | 1 / 1.5 | 6 / 7.5 | -1.99 |
|
Gomez
BHA · £4.9
|
MID | 5 / 6.2 | 1 / 1.7 | -1.96 |
|
Andrey Santos
CHE · £4.4
|
MID | 1 / 2.0 | 0 / 0.9 | -1.88 |
|
Kluivert
BOU · £6.9
|
MID | 2 / 2.3 | 0 / 1.6 | -1.86 |
Caveat: xG models don't capture everything. Elite finishers (Haaland, M. Salah at peak) consistently outperform xG due to shot quality. Treat these lists as a starting point, not a strict rule.
