GW9 Preview: Liverpool v Arsenal, João Pedro Out and One Captain Pick, Not Two

By Geomi George · Published 30 October 2026

The Gameweek 9 deadline is Saturday at 11:00, with Chelsea v Man United the 12:30 opener, and the clocks went back last weekend, so it really is 11:00 and not noon. This is the round where the big attacks all meet each other, where the game's second-most-owned player is out injured, and where October's mini-league prize is decided. Check the countdown on the dashboard, then read on.

What GW8 left behind

The GW8 review is a frank one: the captain was fine, most of the judgement calls were not, and this preview sticks closer to the model as a result. The biggest story since is João Pedro. The unspecified flag that kept him out of the Spurs game is now a thigh injury with no return date, and he has been sold by 1.48 million managers this week, the largest exodus of the season. The money has gone to N.Jackson (1.15 million in, up £0.2m), Tavernier (786,000, also up £0.2m), Evanilson and Isak. Calafiori, a 75% doubt with a hip injury, has been sold by 415,000 and fallen in price, as have Saka, Bruno and Szoboszlai.

The fixtures that matter

• Liverpool v Arsenal (Sun 4:30pm) — the two best defensive records in the league meet: Arsenal have conceded 5 and kept five clean sheets, Liverpool have conceded 8 and kept four. Both are rated hard. Gabriel, Konsa and Raya, last week's heroes, face the toughest attack they have seen; Isak and Virgil likewise. Hold everyone, captain nobody, and expect a low-scoring game.
• Man City v Brighton (Sat 3pm) — Brighton travel on the round's hardest away rating, and after Anfield their owners are nervous. But Brighton have conceded 7 all season, the third-best record in the league, which makes this a harder game for Haaland than the home fixture suggests. More on that below.
• Chelsea v Man United (Sat 12:30) — rated hard for both, and both defences deserve it: Chelsea have one clean sheet, United none. Chelsea are without João Pedro, and Palmer's availability after the red card needs confirming on Friday. Rogers, owned by half the game, is the Chelsea attacker left standing; Mbeumo is the United one.
• Hull v Ipswich (Sat 3pm) — rated easy for both sides, but it is Hull's defence that profits: three clean sheets and eight conceded against an Ipswich side that has no clean sheet in eight. Tzolakis, Ajayi and Belloumi are the plays.
• Spurs v Palace (Sat 5:30pm) — Palace have conceded 19, the most in the league. Spurs have kept three clean sheets, so Kinsky and Van Hecke are the cheap route in, and Tel, who scored at Chelsea, is queued for a price rise.
• Villa v Fulham (Sat 8pm) — the other difficulty-2 home game. Jackson, McGinn and Manzambi all start and all have Fulham's ten goals conceded in front of them. Jackson and McGinn are both in our Best XI.
• Bournemouth v Leeds (Sat 3pm) — the week's most-bought pair, Tavernier and Evanilson, face a Leeds defence that has conceded six and kept three clean sheets. Good players, hard fixture: temper expectations after the 3-0 at Old Trafford.

The full grid, with the runs out to GW12, is on the fixtures page.

Captaincy corner

One pick this week, not two. Our model has Haaland at 8.2 projected points and nobody else above 6.4. He has nine goals in eight games, the highest expected goal involvement in the game by a wide margin, and he is at home. The case against is real: Brighton have the third-best defence in the league and have kept five clean sheets. But the alternatives all carry worse problems. Tavernier (6.4) faces Leeds' six-goals-conceded defence; Jackson (5.7) is the fixture pick at home to Fulham but has four goals all season; Isak and the Arsenal attackers are in the Anfield game; Rogers and Mbeumo are in a match rated hard for both; and the Brighton pair go to the Etihad. Haaland is owned by 78% of the game, so the downside of a blank is shared. Captain him and move on.

If you do not own Haaland, Tavernier is the model's second choice and the only other player on the grid with both form and a home game. The team analyzer ranks the options in your own squad.

Three differentials, with the numbers

Van Hecke (TOT, £4.9m, 8.5% owned) has 38 points, three clean sheets, and hosts a Palace side that has scored nine. He is in our Best XI. McGinn (AVL, £5.4m, 3.3%) takes corners, has an expected goal involvement above two, hosts Fulham, and is also in the Best XI; Manzambi, in the same team, is the alternative and is rising in price. Neto (CHE, £6.6m, 4.4%) is on 7.7 form with 37 points and faces a United defence without a clean sheet all season; the fixture is rated hard, but United's record says otherwise. Each starts, each has underlying numbers, each has a reason beyond last week's score. The differentials guide covers how to weigh them.

A word on the Best XI this week

The one-week Best XI looks unusual: it spends only £92.7m, leaves out Isak, Gabriel, Raya, Konsa and Groß, and fills the side with Villa, Leeds, Hull and Spurs players. That is the model reading the fixtures literally. Liverpool v Arsenal and City v Brighton take six of the game's most-owned players and give them the hardest matchups of the round, so the optimiser prefers cheaper starters with easier games. It is a map of this weekend, not a transfer plan: do not sell a premium for one hard fixture. Use it to pick your bench order, not your transfers.

Before the deadline checklist

• 11:00 on Saturday. Chelsea v United is the early game. The clocks have changed.
• João Pedro owners: he is out with no return date and is predicted to fall in price tonight. Sell him now rather than after the drop; Jackson, Evanilson or Isak are the like-for-like routes, with Isak also set to rise.
• Flags: Calafiori (75%, hip) and Rice (75%) both face Anfield; bench if you have cover rather than take a hit. Lacroix and Thomas are 50%. Saka, Szoboszlai, Semenyo and Shaw are out.
• Prices tonight: Manzambi, Hill, Tel, Doku and Isak are queued to rise; Calvert-Lewin, João Pedro, Mendy and Tzolis are likely to fall. The predictor updates through the evening.
• Mini-league managers: this is the last gameweek whose deadline falls in October, so the monthly winner in your league table is settled after this round. Chips played this month count or not according to the rule your league has chosen.
• One week ahead: GW10 brings Arsenal at home to Hull, Everton at home to Coventry, Spurs at Leeds and Bournemouth at Ipswich — a much softer round for the big defences, which is another reason not to sell them now.

The full optimized squad — 3-4-3, Haaland captain, Tavernier vice — is on the Best XI page, and Saturday's opener will be live in the Match Centre. Good luck for GW9.